Sample deliverable
TO: COO, Vanguard Outdoor Supply
FROM: ReasonCX (Autonomous Agent)
DATE: November 27, 2025 - 07:00 ET
SUBJECT: BFCM Operations War Room - Carrier, inventory, and margin guardrails
Executive Summary
Thanksgiving evening through Cyber Monday will stretch capacity 4.5 times over a normal week. Current telemetry shows a 21-hour pick/pack backlog, oversell risk on the StormLite Parka door-buster, and a looming UPS injection curfew on the West Coast. Without intervention, Vanguard will spend an additional $640k in expedited freight and invite a WISMO spike that exhausts the CX team before Saturday.
Key Operational Findings
A. Door-buster inventory exposure
- Data: StormLite Parka size M is trending +186% to forecast; sell-out is projected 9 hours into Black Friday with 4,300 pre-orders queued.
- Impact: Potential oversell of 1,100 units and $220k in refunds unless bundles are throttled.
- Observation: Wholesale replenishment arrives Tuesday; no safety stock currently set aside for VIP reorders.
B. 3PL pick/pack backlog
- Data: Current open orders: 38,420; 21-hour average to first scan versus 8-hour SLA.
- Impact: Creates >12k orders that will miss the promised delivery date and drive WISMO tickets.
- Observation: Backlog concentrated on Zone 7 orders because receiving dock #3 has been idle since 03:15 due to WMS outage.
C. Carrier capacity constraint
- Data: UPS West Coast injection window moved up to 18:00 local; current trailer schedule assumes 21:00.
- Impact: 7,800 orders risk rolling to Saturday, forcing $24 per order in expedited reroute fees.
- Observation: Regional carrier SonicShip still has 38% idle capacity and matching SLA.
D. Refund + reship cost inflation
- Data: Average recovery cost per damaged order reached $18.40 vs. $11.10 during BFCM 2024.
- Impact: Projected $410k margin erosion if trend holds for the next 6 days.
- Observation: Damage codes map to a single lot of corrugate and lack of QC cameras on lane 5.
Financial Exposure & Forecast
- Expedited freight risk: $640k (additional) if UPS curfews persist.
- Door-buster refunds: $220k if StormLite oversell is not throttled by 10:00 Friday.
- Labor + overtime: +$95k if third shift is approved for Friday/Saturday.
- Inventory carrying cost: +$62k if Cyber Monday bundles are delayed past December 1.
Action escalations (next 72 hours)
A. Convert promo to waitlist + VIP reservation
Action: Limit StormLite bundles to existing inventory, redirect overflow visitors to a signed waitlist SMS flow, and reserve 1,500 units for loyalty tiers.
Target: Avoid overselling while still capturing a $480k pipeline.
B. Activate overflow nodes + micro-fulfillment
Action: Move 9,000 open orders to the Columbus facility and convert 1,200 fastest-moving SKUs to pre-labeled kits.
Target: Reduce order-to-scan to <10 hours by Friday 18:00.
C. Reallocate carrier mix before curfew
Action: Pull 6 UPS trailers forward, route West Coast orders <5 lbs to SonicShip, and auto-text customers whose promised delivery shifts.
Target: Keep on-time delivery rate above 97% without $24 per order expedite cost.
D. Launch damage containment cell
Action: Quarantine corrugate lot #44, double-inspect premium SKUs, and deploy a mobile QC camera rig on lane 5.
Target: Return average recovery cost to <$12 within 48 hours.
BFCM KPIs to watch
- Order-to-first-scan lag (Target: <10 hours)
- UPS trailer fill vs. curfew (Target: 100% by 17:30 local)
- Door-buster oversell variance (Target: 0 units)
- Refund and reship cost per order (Target: <$12)
Conclusion
Executing the above escalations turns the CX Audit into a control tower: inventory stays in sync with promos, carriers stay within promised SLAs, and finance gains a live picture of margin impact. Every hour saved before Friday reduces the volume of apologies we owe customers on Monday.